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Prediction in Self-Driving Vehicles

by Harshit Aggrawal, Summer Intern SMLab



For any vehicle to perform autonomous driving, it's primary task is to be able to predict a path and map of the surrounding given it's current control and observations.

Today, we'll be discussing the process of motion prediction in autonomous vehicles.

The topics covered in this article will be:

  1. What is Autonomy and autonomous driving ?
  2. Introduction to Mapping and Path Prediction
  3. Problem of Sensor Fusion
  4. Use of Bayesian Recursion and Kalman Filters
  5. Use of Machine Learning and Deep Learning in path prediction
  6. Major Challenges faced during path detection like:
    • Moving Objects (Dynamics)
    • Lower feature pool

What is Autonomy and autonomous driving ?

Autonomy refers to the ability of a vehicle to operate and make decisions without human intervention. Autonomous driving, also known as self-driving or driverless driving, is the concept of vehicles being able to navigate and drive themselves without the need for a human driver.

Introduction to Mapping and Path Prediction

Mapping and path prediction are crucial components of autonomous driving systems. Mapping involves creating a detailed representation of the surrounding environment, including roads, obstacles, and landmarks. Path prediction, on the other hand, focuses on estimating the future trajectory of the vehicle based on its current state and observations.

Problem of Sensor Fusion

Sensor fusion is the process of combining data from multiple sensors to obtain a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of the environment. In autonomous driving, sensor fusion plays a critical role in integrating information from various sensors such as cameras, lidar, radar, and GPS to create a reliable perception of the surroundings.

Use of Bayesian Recursion and Kalman Filters

Bayesian recursion and Kalman filters are mathematical techniques used in autonomous driving for state estimation and prediction. These methods allow the vehicle to continuously update its belief about its own state and the state of the surrounding environment based on sensor measurements and prior knowledge.

Use of Machine Learning and Deep Learning in path prediction

Machine learning and deep learning algorithms have revolutionized path prediction in autonomous driving. By training models on large datasets, these techniques enable vehicles to learn patterns and make accurate predictions about future paths, taking into account various factors such as road conditions, traffic, and pedestrian behavior.

Major Challenges faced during path detection like:

Moving Objects (Dynamics)

Detecting and predicting the behavior of moving objects, such as other vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists, is a significant challenge in path detection. The autonomous system needs to accurately track and anticipate the movements of these dynamic objects to ensure safe and efficient navigation.

Lower feature pool

In certain scenarios, such as poorly lit environments or adverse weather conditions, the availability of reliable features for path detection may be limited. This poses a challenge for autonomous driving systems, as they need to rely on alternative methods or sensor modalities to accurately perceive the environment and predict the path.

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Resources

References